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Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.

That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Debates range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."

Call for Broader Dialogue

Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."